Tun tsakiyarDisamba, an sami hauhawar farashin aluminium mai mahimmanci, tare da aluminium na Shanghai ya sake dawowa kusan 8.6% daga ƙarancin yuan / ton 18,190, kuma
LME aluminum yana hawan dalar Amurka 2,109 zuwa ton 2,400.A gefe guda, wannan ya faru ne saboda kyakkyawan fata na kasuwancin kasuwa
game da adadin kudin ruwa na babban bankin Amurka ya yanke tsammanin, a daya bangaren kuma, an samu tashin gwauron zabi saboda tsadar farashin da aka samu na raguwar samar da alumina da rikicin Tekun Bahar Maliya ya karu.Wannan tashin aluminium na Shanghai ya karye ta hanyar haɓaka
kewayon da aka kafa sama da shekara guda, tare da LME aluminum yana nuna ƙarancin rauni kwatankwacin.A makon da ya gabata, yayin da wasu masana'antun alumina suka koma
samarwa, sauƙaƙe damuwa wadata, duka alumina da farashin aluminium sun ɗan ɗan ja baya.
1. Karancin Samar da tama na Bauxite Har yanzu Zai Hana Ƙarfin Samar da Alumina
Dangane da ma'adinin bauxite na cikin gida, ƙimar aikin ma'adinan ba su da yawa a cikin hunturu.Wani hatsarin mahakar ma'adanan da aka yi a Shanxi a karshen shekarar da ta gabata ya sa aka dakatar da hakar ma'adinan da dama
samarwa don dubawa da gyare-gyare, ba tare da tsammanin sake farawa a cikin gajeren lokaci ba.Har ila yau, mahakar ma'adinan Sanmenxia a Henan bai bayar da rahoton sake dawowa ba, tare da
an rage fitar da ma'adinai a Pingdingshan.Akwai karancin sabbin ma'adanai da aka bude a Guizhou, kuma ana sa ran samar da ma'adinan bauxite zai ci gaba da kasancewa cikin tsawaita na tsawon lokaci, wanda zai goyi bayan farashin alumina.Dangane da ma'adanin da aka shigo da su daga waje, tasirin da
Ana ci gaba da fuskantar karancin man fetur sakamakon fashewar ma'ajiyar man fetur ta Guinea, wanda akasari ke nuna yadda farashin mai na kamfanonin hakar ma'adinai ya karu da hauhawar farashin kayayyakin dakon mai.
A halin yanzu, shine lokacin koli na jigilar ma'adinan Guinea.A cewar SMM, jigilar alumina da aka yi a makon da ya gabata daga Guinea ya kai tan miliyan 2.2555.
karuwar tan 392,900 daga tan miliyan 1.8626 na makon da ya gabata.Halin da ake ciki a cikin Tekun Bahar Maliya yana da iyakanceccen tasiri akan sufuri na alumina,
kamar yadda kusan kashi saba'in cikin dari na kayayyakin da ake shigowa da su na alumina na kasar Sin na zuwa ne daga kasar Guinea, kuma jigilar kayayyaki daga kasashen Guinea da Australia ba sa ratsawa ta tekun Bahar Maliya.
Za a iya jin tasirin a wani ɗan ƙaramin yanki na jigilar alumina daga Turkiyya.
aluminum profileSakamakon ƙarancin wadatar alumina tama da ƙuntatawa samar da muhalli, an sami raguwar ƙarfin samar da alumina a baya.A cewar Aladdin, ya zuwa ranar Juma’ar da ta gabata, karfin aiki na alumina ya kai tan miliyan 81.35, tare da aikin da ya kai kashi 78.7%, wanda hakan ya yi kasa da na al’ada na tan miliyan 84-87 a rabin na biyu na shekara.Farashin tabo na Alumina ya tashi tare da farashin gaba.Ranar Juma'ar da ta gabata, farashin tabo a yankin Henan ya kai yuan 3,320/ton, sama da yuan 190/ton idan aka kwatanta da makon da ya gabata.Farashin wuri a yankin Shanxi ya karu da yuan 180 zuwa yuan 3,330/ton idan aka kwatanta da makon da ya gabata.A makon da ya gabata, tare da ingantacciyar iskar iska a wasu sassan Shandong da Henan da kuma ɗaukar faɗakarwar ƙazamar yanayi, kamfanoni da yawa na alumina sun dawo da kera su, waɗanda yawancin samfuran samfuran da ake samarwa.Wani babban kamfani a yankin Shanxi wanda ya rage karfin samar da shi saboda matsalolin calcination shi ma yana ci gaba da samar da kayayyaki, tare da wasu kamfanoni, wanda ke nuna cewa halin da ake ciki na kayan tabo na alumina a cikin gajeren lokaci na iya inganta.Duk da haka, ana sa ran matsalar rashin wadatar tama zai ci gaba da ba da tallafi ga farashin alumina a cikin matsakaicin lokaci.
2. Haɓaka Kuɗi da Ribar Aluminum Electrolysis
Dangane da tsadar wutar lantarki na aluminium, baya ga gagarumin hauhawar farashin alumina, farashin wutar lantarki da soda caustic sun kasance da kwanciyar hankali.A farkon watan, wani sanannen sana’ar cikin gida ya rage farashin sa na siyar da aluminium fluoride, wanda ya haifar da raguwar farashin ma’amala a kasuwar ta aluminum fluoride.Gabaɗaya, SMM ya kiyasta cewa, a farkon watan Janairu, jimilar farashin wutar lantarki ta aluminum ya kai kusan yuan 16,600 kan kowace tan, wanda ya haura yuan 320 kan kowace tan daga kusan yuan 16,280 kan kowace tan a tsakiyar watan Disamban bara.Tare da hauhawar farashin aluminium electrolysis na lokaci guda, ribar kamfanoni na aluminium na lantarki su ma sun ga wani haɓaka.
3. Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙira
Bisa kididdigar da hukumar kididdiga ta kasar Sin ta yi, daga watan Janairu zuwa Nuwamba na shekarar 2023, yawan adadin almuran da kasar Sin ta samar ya kai tan miliyan 38, wanda ya karu da kashi 3.9 cikin dari a duk shekara.Abubuwan da aka fitar a watan Nuwamba sun ragu kadan zuwa tan miliyan 3.544, musamman saboda takaita wutar lantarki a yankin Yunnan.Kamar yadda Mysteel ya ruwaito, ya zuwa karshen watan Nuwamba, karfin da kasar Sin ta gina na aluminium electrolytic ya kai tan miliyan 45.0385, tare da karfin aiki na tan miliyan 42.0975 da karfin amfani da kashi 93.47%, raguwar kashi 2.62% a duk wata.A watan Nuwamba, shigo da danyen aluminium da kasar Sin ta shigo da shi ya kai ton 194,000, kasa da na Oktoba, amma har yanzu yana kan matsayi mai girma.
Ya zuwa ranar 5 ga watan Janairu, adadin aluminium na kasuwar musayar gaba ta Shanghai ya kai ton 96,637, wanda ya ci gaba da koma baya kuma ya ragu a matsayi mai karanci idan aka kwatanta da lokacin da aka yi a shekarun baya.Girman garantin ya kasance tan 38,917, yana ba da takamaiman tallafi don farashin nan gaba.Tun daga ranar 4 ga Janairu, Mysteel ya ba da rahoton cewa ƙididdigar zamantakewar al'umma ta electrolytic aluminium ta kasance tan 446,000, ton dubu 11.3 ƙasa da na daidai wannan lokacin a bara, wanda ke nuna cewa gabaɗayan tabo na cikin gida ya kasance m.Ganin raunin ayyukan da ke ƙasa kafin bikin bazara da raguwar da ake tsammani a cikin canjin canjin ruwa na aluminium ta masana'antun aluminium na lantarki, kayan ingot na aluminum na iya haɓakawa a cikin rabin na biyu na Janairu.A ranar 5 ga Janairu, kayan aikin aluminium na LME ya tsaya a tan 558,200, an ɗaga shi kaɗan daga matsakaicin tsakiyar Disamba, amma har yanzu yana cikin ƙaramin matakin gabaɗaya, dan kadan sama da daidai lokacin bara.Adadin rasidun ajiyar ajiya da aka yiwa rajista ya kai tan 374,300, tare da saurin murmurewa.Kwangilar tabo ta aluminium ta LME ta ga ɗan ƙarami, yana nuna cewa samar da tabo bai nuna maƙarƙashiya ba.
4. Rawanin Buƙatun Buƙatun Kafin Sabuwar Shekarar Sinawa
A cewar SMM, bayan Sabuwar Yeay's Day, kayan aikin billet na aluminium sun shiga cikin saurin tarawa.Ya zuwa ranar 4 ga watan Janairu, kayan jama'a na sandar aluminium na cikin gida ya kai tan 82,000, karuwar tan 17,900 idan aka kwatanta da ranar Alhamis da ta gabata.Yawan shigowar kayayyaki a lokacin bukukuwa, da raunana ayyukan da ake gudanarwa a karkashin kasa kafin sabuwar shekara ta kasar Sin, da kuma yawan farashin aluminum da ya hana sayayya a kasa, su ne manyan dalilan da suka sa aka samu karuwar kayayyaki.A cikin makon farko na 2024, yawan aiki na manyan kamfanonin bayanan martabar aluminium na cikin gida ya ci gaba da yin rauni, a kashi 52.7%, tare da raguwar mako-mako na 2.1%.Wasu farashin bayanin martabar ginin gini da umarni sun ƙi, yayin da manyan kamfanonin bayanan martaba na kera ke ci gaba da kasancewa kan ƙimar aiki mai girma.Kasuwar bayanin martaba ta photovoltaic ta fuskanci gasa mai ƙarfi, kuma adadin oda kuma ya ragu.Daga hangen nesa, raguwar yawan shekara-shekara a sabbin wuraren gine-gine da wuraren gine-gine daga Janairu zuwa Nuwamba ya nuna ci gaba kadan, amma yanayin tallace-tallace a matakin mabukaci ya kasance mai rauni.A watan Nuwamban shekarar 2023, yawan kera motoci da sayar da motoci na kasar Sin ya kammala raka'a miliyan 3.093 da miliyan 2.97, bi da bi, inda aka yi rijistar karuwar kashi 29.4% da kashi 27.4% a duk shekara, lamarin da ke nuna saurin bunkasuwa.
5. Dangantakar Muhalli na Macroeconomic na waje
Tarayyar Tarayya ta kula da ƙimar ribar da ba ta canza ba a lokacin taron na Disamba, tare da Powell ya sake sakin siginar dovish, yana mai cewa Tarayyar Tarayya tana la'akari da tattaunawa game da raguwar kudaden da ya dace, kuma yiwuwar raguwar farashin ya shiga cikin la'akari.Kamar yadda tsammanin raguwar ƙima ke ƙarfafawa, tunanin kasuwa ya kasance mai kyakkyawan fata, kuma ba a sa ran wasu mahimman abubuwan tattalin arziki mara kyau a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.Fihirisar dalar Amurka ta ja baya a kasa da 101, kuma yawan hadi na Amurka shima ya ragu.Bayanan da aka samu daga taron na Disamba da aka buga daga baya ba su da yawa kamar yadda taron da ya gabata ya kasance, kuma kyakkyawan bayanan aikin da ba na gonaki ba a watan Disamba ya goyi bayan ra'ayin cewa manufofin kuɗi na ƙuntatawa za su ci gaba da dogon lokaci.Duk da haka, wannan ba zai hana ainihin tsammanin raguwar adadin kuɗi guda uku a cikin 2024. Kafin sabuwar shekara ta Sin, ba za a iya samun koma baya ba zato ba tsammani a yanayin tattalin arziki.Kamfanin PMI na kasar Sin a watan Disamba ya fadi da kashi 0.4% zuwa kashi 49 cikin dari, lamarin da ke nuni da raguwar abubuwan da ake samarwa da bukatu.Daga cikin su, sabon tsarin oda ya ragu da kashi 0.7% zuwa 48.7%, wanda ke nuna cewa har yanzu ana bukatar karfafa tushe na farfado da tattalin arzikin cikin gida.
Lokacin aikawa: Janairu-22-2024